Tom's Notes—U.K. Election

"Hmm." This is what most British voters are thinking now.

Nick Clegg got the bare knuckles of the press these last few days; but something has hurt him more than the extra scrutiny—second thoughts. Are the public really comfortable with the reality of PM Clegg rather than the daydream. I don't think so, and to explain why I need to talk about Cola. Yes, Cola.

Virgin Cola.

Remember the taste?

Me neither. And if you wanted to remind yourself, the only place you can get a can is 35,000 ft. in the air aboard a Virgin Atlantic flight. There's a good reason why we don't remember the taste of Virgin Cola, and why just about the only place you'll find yourself drinking it is on a Virgin plane: it's a 3rd brand in a binary market. This is the danger Nick Clegg faces.

Forget taste, and sales, for a minute, and let's only think only about prima facie popularity: what I can remember is that Virgin Cola was wildly popular for a while—when it was first released. "Yeah, why not" we thought; there was a charismatic front-man, and his product wasn't embarrassing.

When the novelty wore off, we all took an extra thought about Virgin Cola. It took a conscious effort to buy it, and to convince yourself it tasted better than the number one brand; whereas Coke required none of that. Pepsi required some of that, but was long enough established to be the acceptable smug option. Virgin Cola wasn't different enough - palatably different enough - to get anything other than faddish attention. And we love hating on the fad (even if we partook!).

Nick Clegg, and the lib-Dems, find themselves on the first line of the above paragraph; and I can see them following it word for word through to the last line. Doesn't mean it has to happen, but chances are it will.

Cameron is Pepsi, Brown Coke—and we're in a late 80s/early 90s type moment, where voters new and old, so sick of Coke's dominance, may choose Pepsi instead (for a while). My advice to Nick Clegg would be "you have to be number two before you can be number one in this market."

Better to get going on that, because right now everyone is going "Hmm."